Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will … is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
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Taleb can be quite a divisive figure. He is outspoken, unapologetic and politically incorrect. The trifecta of noxious behavior in today’s image conscious celebrity obsessed world. Nonetheless, his books resonate with people because they contain powerful ideas.
While a lot of readers will very likely hate the book because it is at times repetitive and its prose is not what one could consider elegant or crisp, Taleb is preaching to the choir. This is a book for those who think about cognitive biases and are interested in mental models. Thinking about how to make better decisions.
If you’re looking for a book to pass the time and enjoy the words you should definitely skip this one. But if you want a book that will challenge you to think and put some effort, you will very likely enjoy it.
Excellent reality check.
Mandatory reading for students young and old!
Fair. Easy to read in small sections. Good effort by Couric but nothing spectacular.
This book changed my perspective of how reality functions, and our perceptions of it. Must-read for anyone interested in proper thinking.
Eye opening view of many of the things we assume to be true. A better way at looking at statistics than the traditional bell curve.
If you are curious about Hedge Funds and Quants, Warren Buffet and Citadel, Card counting and the luck of the draw this would be a good book to read. Taleb writes well, in understandable language a lay person can be comfortable with versus El-Erian. This book would go well with A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Malkiel.
Literally life changing.
To be fair.. if i were that rich I’d also think random stories about my rich friends are extremely interesting. Unfortunately, the writing style doesn’t translate well to column style writing
The author takes himself a little too seriously; but it is a good book to help understand the mind of investors.
I’d recently read Taleb’s Antifragile and found it fascinating exploration of human thought and the errors inherent in most of thinking process. Fooled By Randomness approaches thinking from another perspective… exploring how susceptible we are to thinking we understand something when, in fact, we don’t.
Taleb is not for the faint-hearted who prefer to live in a world of fantasy and accepted narrative as they try to avoid bad news about what the real world is about. Taleb can be arrogant at times and may require that careful readers go over a few of the passages more than once. But he is very wise and very observant about the way that reality has a way of spoiling a good story sold by charlatans to a naive populace. In addition to his wise advice, his philosophical and literary references are worth examining on their own. Buy the book and buy the others in the series. And by all means follow the references down the rabbit hole if you have the time, intellectual horsepower, and general curiosity to benefit from the diversions.